Sign up! TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road

Info: Facebook Basic information and gear list Overhead view Mini screen Formulas info

Forward toad crossings predicted to be (mostly) complete on 2024-04-17. On this day and the days beyond the forecast is cutoff arbitrarily because a certain number have been predicted for the season. This is just a guess. (There will still be toads returning to the woods from the reservoir.)

Summary	Date / Time	Weather @ Sundown	Moon Phase	Pred- iction
	Wednesday April 24th 7:50 PM	60 / Partly Cloudy Wind: 10 mph	No moon	35 toads
	Thursday April 25th 7:51 PM	52 / Mostly Clear Wind: 5 mph	No moon	0 toads
	Friday April 26th 7:52 PM	54 / Mostly Clear Wind: 5 mph	No moon	0 toads
	Saturday April 27th 7:53 PM	55 / Mostly Cloudy Wind: 10 mph	No moon	0 toads
	Sunday April 28th 7:54 PM	71 / Partly Cloudy Wind: 10 mph	No moon	0 toads
	Monday April 29th 7:55 PM	75 / Partly Cloudy Wind: 10 mph	No moon	0 toads
	Tuesday April 30th 7:56 PM	71 / Chance Showers And Thunderstorms Wind: 10 mph	No moon	100 toads

Click on an above date for forecast details. Forecast is how many American Toads a fully staffed detour night would count in the two hours after sunset.

The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.

Weather error