Accuracy Assessment of the Predictor Algorithm

This page keeps track of hits vs misses for the toad predictor algorithm.

This is pretty geeky stuff and only for the curious. Stacy, thank you for giving me grief about this page.

Date Temper
ature
Reported
Toads
Rain
avg

Predicted

Percent
TotalDays Reported x Predicted
Total
percent
0 0 0 NaN

The above table is filled out as we get data on how many toads were observed on each day we had volunteers report the toad counts.

Green if: (1) Within 30 toads

Green if: (2) Within 30%

Green if: (3) Actual and predicted toads >= 50

Red otherwise



These are some of the constants used in the formulas.
There can be more than one set when different sets are being evaluated.

Static Description Value
carryOver percent from previous if temperature doesn't fall 50
factorForAvgTemp Skew avg temp faster when wetter 0.5
followOn whether follow on is predicted 1
max_toads Expected number of toads crossing to the reservoir 1200
min_avg the minimum average temperature for a dry day pred 50
min_temp The minimum temperature for dry prediction 62
momentum_deduction Standard amount to delete from forecast 10
returnMax number toads returning 0
returnRainThresh rain threshold for wet return 1.6
returnTempThreshWet returning temperature threshold wet 58
temp_scale increase in toad prediction per degree 8
toad_basis_count_wet Basic toad crossing prediction when it is very wet 300
toad_basis_count_wet_less Basic toad crossing prediction when it is very wet 100
wet_rain_factor_thresh Threshold for rain factor for wet crossings 1.6
wet_thresh_avg_temp Threshold for movement; two day average temp 48
wet_thresh_current_temp Threshold for movement; sunset temperature 55
wet_thresh_current_temp_less Threshold for movement; sunset temperature 53

Weather Descript
Factor

Upswing

Downswing
Chance Rain Showers 1.50 1.00 0.99
Light Rain Likely 2.75 1.00 0.97
Widespread Showers And Thunderstorms 2.50 1.00 0.99
Isolated Showers And Thunderstorms 1.50 1.00 0.98
Rain Likely 2.75 1.00 0.97
Heavy Rain 3.00 1.00 0.97
Rain Showers 2.00 1.00 0.97
Rain Showers Likely 1.75 1.00 0.99
Showers And Thunderstorms Likely 2.50 1.00 0.99
Showers And Thunderstorms 2.75 1.00 0.97
Slight Chance Light Rain 1.50 1.00 0.98
Areas Of Drizzle 1.75 1.00 0.99
Slight Chance Rain Showers 1.25 1.00 0.98
Chance Light Rain 1.50 1.00 0.98
Isolated Rain Showers 1.50 1.00 0.98
Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 1.50 1.00 0.97
Light Rain 2.75 1.00 0.97
Rain 3.00 1.00 0.97
Cloudy 1.00 1.00 0.97
Mostly Cloudy 1.00 1.00 0.97
Partly Sunny 1.00 1.00 0.92
Mostly Sunny 1.00 1.00 0.91
Partly Cloudy 1.00 1.00 0.97
Mostly Clear 1.00 1.00 0.97
Clear 1.00 1.00 0.97
Sunny 1.00 1.00 0.90
Slight Chance Snow Showers 1.00 1.00 0.97
Slight Chance Light Snow 1.00 1.00 0.97
Chance Sleet 1.00 1.00 0.97
Patchy Drizzle 1.75 1.00 0.97
Slight Chance Rain And Snow Showers 1.00 1.00 0.97
Patchy Fog 1.50 1.00 0.98
Areas Of Fog 1.75 1.00 0.99
Widespread Fog 2.00 1.00 1.00
Slight Chance Showers And Thunderstorms 1.50 1.00 0.98


The below form is used to spawn a new set of constant values (statics) to further refine the prediction formulas.

Passcode:
Old New