Toad Detour Predictor Page for the Roxborough Reservoir

TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road

Info: Facebook

Basic information and gear list

Overhead view

Mini screen

Formulas info

SummaryDate /
Time
Weather @ SundownPred-
iction
Tiny toad Tuesday April 16th
7:42 PM
65 / Mostly Clear27 toads
A few toads Wednesday April 17th
7:43 PM
54 / Rain Showers90 toads
No toads Thursday April 18th
7:44 PM
49 / Mostly Cloudy0 toads
No toads Friday April 19th
7:45 PM
57 / Chance Rain Showers0 toads
No toads Saturday April 20th
7:46 PM
59 / Partly Cloudy0 toads
No toads Sunday April 21st
7:47 PM
53 / Mostly Cloudy0 toads
No toads Monday April 22nd
7:48 PM
xxx / xxx0 toads

Click on an above date for forecast details. Forecast is how many American Toads a fully staffed detour night would count in the two hours after sunset.


The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.

Date Live
Toads
Dead
Toads
Live
Frogs
Dead
Frogs
2024-02-27 0 0 0 0
2024-02-28 14 8 3 2
2024-03-06 29 6 2 1
2024-03-13 0 0 0 0
2024-03-14 33 1 0 0
2024-03-15 18 1 1 1
2024-03-30 26 10 3 0
2024-04-01 2 0 0 0
2024-04-09 413 25 16 0
2024-04-10 180 10 2 0
2024-04-11 254 12 4 0
2024-04-12 20 0 0 0
2024-04-14 7 0 0 0
TotalDays Live Toads Dead Toads Live Frogs Dead Frogs
13 996 73 31 4

Live

Dead

Save Ratio

Toads9967393%
Frogs314
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