Toad Detour Predictor Page for the Roxborough Reservoir
TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road | Info: FacebookBasic information and gear listOverhead viewMini screenFormulas info |
Summary | Date / Time | Weather @ Sundown | Pred- iction |
---|---|---|---|
Friday March 29th 7:23 PM | 49 / Clear | 0 toads | |
Saturday March 30th 7:24 PM | 50 / Slight Chance Rain Showers | 0 toads | |
Sunday March 31st 7:25 PM | 54 / Slight Chance Light Rain | 0 toads | |
Monday April 1st 7:26 PM | 48 / Light Rain Likely | 0 toads | |
Tuesday April 2nd 7:27 PM | 52 / Light Rain Likely | 0 toads | |
Wednesday April 3rd 7:29 PM | 47 / Chance Rain Showers | 0 toads | |
Thursday April 4th 7:30 PM | xxx / xxx | 0 toads |
Click on an above date for forecast details. Forecast is how many American Toads a fully staffed detour night would count in the two hours after sunset.
The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.
Date | Live Toads |
Dead Toads |
Live Frogs |
Dead Frogs |
---|---|---|---|---|
2024-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024-02-28 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
2024-03-06 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
2024-03-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
2024-03-14 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
2024-03-15 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
TotalDays | Live Toads | Dead Toads | Live Frogs | Dead Frogs |
6 | 94 | 16 | 6 | 4 |
Live | Dead | Save Ratio | |
---|---|---|---|
Toads | 94 | 16 | 85% |
Frogs | 6 | 4 |