Toad Detour Predictor Page for the Roxborough Reservoir
TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road | Info: FacebookBasic information and gear listOverhead viewMini screenFormulas info |
The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.
| Date | Live Toads |
Dead Toads |
Live Frogs |
Dead Frogs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-02-28 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 2 |
| 2024-03-06 | 29 | 6 | 2 | 1 |
| 2024-03-13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-03-14 | 33 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-03-15 | 18 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2024-03-30 | 26 | 10 | 3 | 0 |
| 2024-04-01 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-04-09 | 413 | 25 | 16 | 0 |
| 2024-04-10 | 180 | 10 | 2 | 0 |
| 2024-04-11 | 254 | 12 | 4 | 0 |
| 2024-04-12 | 21 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| 2024-04-14 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-04-15 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-04-16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-04-17 | 28 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-04-24 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TotalDays | Live Toads | Dead Toads | Live Frogs | Dead Frogs |
| 17 | 1032 | 76 | 33 | 4 |
Live | Dead | Save Ratio | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toads | 1032 | 76 | 93% |
| Frogs | 33 | 4 |
