Toad Detour Predictor Page for the Roxborough Reservoir

TLDR: Come at sunset with a good flashlight to Port Royal and Hagys Mill Road

Info: Facebook

Basic information and gear list

Overhead view

Mini screen

Formulas info

SummaryDate /
Time
Weather @ SundownPred-
iction
No toads Thursday March 28th
7:22 PM
47 / Chance Light Rain0 toads
No toads Friday March 29th
7:23 PM
47 / Clear0 toads
No toads Saturday March 30th
7:24 PM
52 / Slight Chance Rain Showers0 toads
No toads Sunday March 31st
7:25 PM
55 / Slight Chance Light Rain0 toads
No toads Monday April 1st
7:26 PM
49 / Light Rain Likely0 toads
No toads Tuesday April 2nd
7:27 PM
50 / Light Rain Likely0 toads
No toads Wednesday April 3rd
7:29 PM
xxx / xxx0 toads

Click on an above date for forecast details. Forecast is how many American Toads a fully staffed detour night would count in the two hours after sunset.


The below table shows past days and the number of toads seen. Note, on Feb 28th, the original forecast was 290 toads. Then as the forecast got colder, it changed to 90, then right at dark the forecast went all the way down to 0. I consider this a "win" for the predictor because it did correctly predict the first toad night, sort-of.

Date Live
Toads
Dead
Toads
Live
Frogs
Dead
Frogs
2024-02-27 0 0 0 0
2024-02-28 14 8 3 2
2024-03-06 29 6 2 1
2024-03-13 0 0 0 0
2024-03-14 33 1 0 0
2024-03-15 18 1 1 1
TotalDays Live Toads Dead Toads Live Frogs Dead Frogs
6 94 16 6 4

Live

Dead

Save Ratio

Toads941685%
Frogs64
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